Discovering the Trend of School Enrollment in the US - Statistics Project Example

Discovering the Trend of School Enrollment in the US by: Discovering the Trend of School Enrollment inthe US Abstract This study looks at the changes in enrollment in higher education institutions and attempts to determine the factors that influence it. It uses the education data from the National Statistical Book 2011 released by the US Census Bureau. Data sets were processed through a statistical software in order to identify whether costs of schooling and fiscal budget for education can affect rate of enrollment. The results show that while the average rate of tuition fees and cost of board has significant effects on enrollment rate in the higher education, other factors were not able to show their significance. It is the researcher’s belief that other data sets (particularly those about student aid) must be utilized to find out how government budget can affect enrollment in college or universities in the country. Table of Contents Abstract 2 Problem Statement 3 Procedures 4 Results 4 Conclusions 6 References 7 Appendices 8 Appendix A: 8 Appendix B: Scatterplots for Regression Test 11 12 Appendix C: 14 Problem Statement In an op-ed piece written by Jeff Madrick (2004), he said “higher education…will cure just about anything, from globalization and outsourcing to technological change and income inequality”. This view is of course subscribed to by many organizations and are calling for increased budget for education and other related programs. In fact, the University of Washington has published a report (University of Washington, 2011) showing the importance of financing higher education so as to ensure that the state of Washington will continue to allot budget for the university’s operations. Through government funding, the universities can maintain the excellence and access to research, hence continuing to enrich communities. This research hopes to uncover the connection between government spending and enrollment in college and universities. To address this objective, this research hopes to answer the following questions: 1. How has total enrollment in higher education changed with respect to time? 2. Is the government budget allotted for education programs enough to cover school expenditures in higher education? 3. How has the budget allotment affected total enrollment in college and universities? Procedures To answer the questions above, we will use data on education from the National Data Book (US Census Bureau, 2011). Data from 2003-2008 will be used in this study. Because we want to determine the effect of government expenditure to enrollment in higher education, all figures presented focused only on public colleges and universities. We will use regression analysis in determining the trends in college enrollment, charges and expenditures in higher education institutions, as well as discovering the relationship between government funding and college enrollment while descriptive statistics will be used to describe the sample further. Results Table 1 below shows that between 2000 to 2009, about 66% of all high school completers enrolled in college. Meanwhile, average enrollment in all higher education institutions slightly exceeded the 17,000,000 mark. Average annual tuition fee and in the US between the years 2000 to 2009 was at $3,443 while dormitories cost $3,251.20 on the average. School expenditures for public colleges and universities have averaged at $236 billion while funding for education and other related programs averages at $38 billion. From this summary statistics, one can already see that public colleges and university have to cover $138 billion deficit through increased tuition and miscellaneous fees. How has this affected enrollment? Table 1: Summary Statistics, 2000 – 2009 Mean Hs completers (in thousands) 2778.11 % of HS completers who are enrolled in college 65.7000 Higher Education--Institutions and Enrollment (in thousands) 17180.11 Average charges of higher education institutions - tuition and other required rates, (in $, for the entire academic year) 3443.00 Average charges of higher education institutions – board (in $, for the entire academic year) 2895.10 Average charges of higher education institutions – dormitory (in $, for the entire academic year) 3251.20 Federal Funds for Education and Related Programs (in million $) 38489.2714 School Expenditures, public colleges and universities (in million $) 236491.8000 We ran a regression analysis wherein enrollment is the dependent variable and average charges (tuition, board and dormitory) where the independent variable. The results of this test is summarized in Appendix A. The results show that a 1.1 increase in average tuition, a 1 point increase in enrollment rate may be observed. 89% of the change in enrollment rate can be explained by the change in tuiton fee while 11% is unaccounted for. Other results show that average cost of board can explain 97% of the change in enrollment while the dormitory prices accounts for 95% of the increase or decrease in enrollment in higher education. Note, however, that the relationship between the variables are not linear, but are rather, polynomial, as can be seen in Appendix B. Meanwhile, figure 1 shows that between 2003 – 2006, budget for education services have decreased increased significantly. However, in 2007, the education budget also dropped by almost $20 billion and the budget for this sector has been maintained since then. No significant increases has been recorded, possibly because this was also the time when the US economy was already registering trouble due to the slowdown in the construction and real estate industry. Figure 1: Budget for education services, 2003 - 2009 To determine how the drop in education budget has affected enrollment in higher education institutions, another regression analysis was performed. Results of this test may be found in appendix C. According to this test, every 0.15 change in federal budget causes a 1 point increase in enrollment. Note, however that this finding is not significant (t=.385, p=.720) which means that there are other factors which affect enrollment. With R2= .036, this means that fiscal spending on education accounts for only 3.6% of enrollment rates. Conclusions It is my belief that financial support for schooling from local and national governments can affect enrollment rates, unfortunately, data on student aids was not available, hence I was limited to using federal funding for eduation. The results show that there is no connection between federal budget and enrollment rates, which means that there are other factors which must be explored. Because the on the statistical tests showed that that the costs of schooling has a larger effect on enrollment rates it is still important for the government to find a way to lower tuition rates or at least provide incentives to families whose children are enrolled in higher education. References Madrick, J. (2004, August 5). Economic Scene; If higher education is so important to the economy, why is its financing being cut more than that of other large programs? The New York Times. Retrieved from http://www.nytimes.com/2004/08/05/business/economic-scene-if-higher-education-so-important-economy-why-its-financing-being.html?pagewanted=all&src=pm US Census Bureau. (2011). Education. The 2011 Statistical Abstract: The National Databook. Retrieved September 26, 2011, from http://www.census.gov/compendia/statab/cats/education.html University of Washington. (2011). Meeting the Global Challenge: A case for continued investment 2009-2011. Appendices Appendix A: Coefficientsa Model Unstandardized Coefficients Standardized Coefficients t Sig. B Std. Error Beta 1 (Constant) 11820.228 646.325 18.288 .000 AVERAGE CHARGES OF HIGHER EDUCATION INSTITUTIONS - TUITION AND OTHER REQUIRED RATES 1.614 .191 .954 8.448 .000 a. Dependent Variable: Higher Education--Institutions and Enrollment Model Summaryb Model R R Square Adjusted R Square Std. Error of the Estimate 1 .954a .911 .898 370.092 a. Predictors: (Constant), AVERAGE CHARGES OF HIGHER EDUCATION INSTITUTIONS - TUITION AND OTHER REQUIRED RATES b. Dependent Variable: Higher Education--Institutions and Enrollment Coefficientsa Model Unstandardized Coefficients Standardized Coefficients t Sig. B Std. Error Beta 1 (Constant) 7407.156 622.649 11.896 .000 AVERAGE CHARGES OF HIGHER EDUCATION INSTITUTIONS - BOARD 3.463 .219 .986 15.791 .000 a. Dependent Variable: Higher Education--Institutions and Enrollment Model Summaryb Model R R Square Adjusted R Square Std. Error of the Estimate 1 .986a .973 .969 204.632 a. Predictors: (Constant), AVERAGE CHARGES OF HIGHER EDUCATION INSTITUTIONS - BOARD b. Dependent Variable: Higher Education--Institutions and Enrollment Coefficientsa Model Unstandardized Coefficients Standardized Coefficients t Sig. B Std. Error Beta 1 (Constant) 10483.408 553.510 18.940 .000 AVERAGE CHARGES OF HIGHER EDUCATION INSTITUTIONS - DORMITORY 2.128 .174 .977 12.251 .000 a. Dependent Variable: Higher Education--Institutions and Enrollment Model Summaryb Model R R Square Adjusted R Square Std. Error of the Estimate 1 .977a .955 .949 261.401 a. Predictors: (Constant), AVERAGE CHARGES OF HIGHER EDUCATION INSTITUTIONS - DORMITORY b. Dependent Variable: Higher Education--Institutions and Enrollment Coefficientsa Model Unstandardized Coefficients Standardized Coefficients t Sig. B Std. Error Beta 1 (Constant) 17216.885 1543.299 11.156 .000 Federal Funds for Education and Related Programs .015 .039 .189 .385 .720 a. Dependent Variable: Higher Education--Institutions and Enrollment Model Summaryb Model R R Square Adjusted R Square Std. Error of the Estimate 1 .189a .036 -.205 862.654 a. Predictors: (Constant), Federal Funds for Education and Related Programs b. Dependent Variable: Higher Education--Institutions and Enrollment Appendix B: Scatterplots for Regression Test Appendix C: Coefficientsa Model Unstandardized Coefficients Standardized Coefficients t Sig. B Std. Error Beta 1 (Constant) 17216.885 1543.299 11.156 .000 Federal Funds for Education and Related Programs .015 .039 .189 .385 .720 a. Dependent Variable: Higher Education--Institutions and Enrollment Model Summaryb Model R R Square Adjusted R Square Std. Error of the Estimate 1 .189a .036 -.205 862.654 a. Predictors: (Constant), Federal Funds for Education and Related Programs b. Dependent Variable: Higher Education--Institutions and Enrollment Read More