The Implications for the Air Component of the Likely Characteristics of Future Conflicts - Essay Example

Characteristics of future conflicts have far-reaching implications, but with the present situation, one already has the slightest idea of what and where s/he will be in a future conflict. Theories and predictions portray an even worse scenario. There are many ideas on the art of warfare; the present-day conflict characteristics and future ones offer many variations and paradigms.  Some theories, like those of Hames and Crefeld, are critically discussed. This study will focus on the causes of future conflicts, ideological, resources, and environmental causes.

The historical background of conflicts, interstate or intrastate, wars perpetrated by terrorist organizations, state actors, and non-state actors, will be dealt with in this study. The causes, characteristics, and personalities involved are researched and examined.  This essay is restricted to an analysis of articles and documents presented by theorists and professional military men that are available through different media. Characteristics of present-day conflicts Interstate ethnic conflict entails a set of deliberate strategic interactions and processes by which the behavior of one state creates a crisis for one or more state actors who perceive a core threat to values, finite time for response, and a heightened likelihood of military hostilities.

This definition by several authors states that most interstate conflicts are by nature ethnic in origin.  These can be demonstrated by examples of past interstate conflicts. Examples of interstate wars engaged during the decade since the end of the Cold War are Armenia-Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh, 1992-1995; the war between Ethiopia and Eritrea, 1998-2000; the Congo War of 1998-2000; the 1999 Kargil War between India and Pakistan; and the war in Afghanistan in 2001.

Two other serious disputes in the 1990s that do not qualify as wars are fought in Bosnia from 1992-1995 when Yugoslav regular troops appeared to have been completely withdrawn from Bosnia perhaps as early as May 1992. The subsequent fighting between Bosnian regulars and the Bosnian-Serbs, which continued through December, 995, didoes do not combat between states. The “NATO” bombing of Yugoslavia in 1999 over Kosovo probably resulted from 501 to 999 battle fatalities, insufficient to qualify as an interstate war, according to the COW definition.

While large numbers of Yugoslav regular troops were killed in the bombing campaign, the 1000-battle death threshold was not reached.