Theories and predictions portray an even worse scenario.
There are many ideas on the art of warfare; the present-day conflict characteristics, and future ones offer many variations and paradigms. Some theories, like those of Hames and Crefeld are critically discussed.
This study will focus on the causes of future conflicts, ideological, resources, and environmental causes. Historical background of conflicts, interstate or intrastate, wars perpetrated by terrorist organisations, state actors and non-state actors, will be dealt with in this study. The causes, characteristics, personalities involved are researched and examined. This essay is restricted to an analysis of articles and documents presented by theorists and professional military men that are available through the different media.
Interstate ethnic conflict entails a set of deliberate strategic interactions and processes by which the behavior of one state creates a crisis for one or more state actors who perceive a core threat to values, finite time for response, and a heightened likelihood of military hostilities.3
Examples of interstate wars, engaged during the decade since the end of the Cold War are: Armenia-Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh, 1992-1995; war between Ethiopia and Eritrea, 1998-2000; the Congo War of 1998-2000; the 1999 Kargil War between India and Pakistan; and the war in Afghanistan in 2001. Two other serious disputes in the 1990s that do not qualify as wars are the fighting in Bosnia from 1992-1995, when Yugoslav regular troops appeared to have been completely withdrawn from Bosnia perhaps as early as May, 1992. The subsequent fighting between Bosnian regulars and the Bosnian-Serbs, which continued through December, 1995, is thus not combat between nation-states. The "NATO" bombing of Yugoslavia in 1999 over Kosovo probably resulted from 501 to 999 battle fatalities, insufficient to qualifying it as an interstate war, according to the COW definition. While large numbers of Yugoslav regular troops were killed in the bombing campaign, the 1000-battle death threshold was not reached.4
The Correlates of War Project5 (COW) defines interstate wars "as occurring when two nation-states engaged in military action against one another that result in at least 1,000 battle fatalities." From this definition, civil wars are excluded since they are not between states. The COW war dataset is widely used among scholars and practitioners because it allows a comparison on this form of international violence across decades.6
The conflicts which are of global concern involve deep issues of ethnic and cultural identity, of recognition and of participation that are usually denied to ethnic minorities in addition to issues of security and other values that are not negotiable.
Ethnicity is back as the primary cause of interstate wars. Brechner and James (1986) said that about two decades ago, interstate crises have their