Strategic Assessment of the Retail Marketing Sector in Ireland - Statistics Project Example

Analysis of the Retail Market Environment in the Republic of Ireland A confidential report to Wal-Mart Corporation (February 2006) Contents Page Introduction 3 Overview of the Retail Market Sector 4 Analysis of the Strategic Environment 5 Political Factors 5 Economic Factors 7 Social Factors 8 Technological Factors 9 Profile of the Irish Retail Market Consumer 10 Conclusions 12 Reference List 14 Appendix List 16 Table 1. Market Competitors. 17 Table 2. Population by Age Group 18 Table 3. Proposed market segmentation of Ireland retail sector 19 Introduction This report was prepared to guide Wal-Mart's senior management team in line with the company's decision to open a retail outlet in the Republic of Ireland before year-end 2006 and to secure a ten percent (10%) share of the retail market by year-end 2008. The objectives of this report were the following: Conduct a strategic assessment of the retail marketing sector in Ireland to examine the trends of structural changes taking place at the local, national, and global environments and their impact and implications on Wal-Mart; and, Analyse the local market and identify appropriate marketing strategies. The two parts of this report correspond to each of these objectives. Several sources (CIA, 2006; Economist, 2005b; Burnham, 2003) consider the Republic of Ireland the Celtic Tiger because its economy has grown the fastest in the European Union (EU), in the process transforming itself from an agricultural to a modern, trade-dependent economy growing 7% annually (from 1995-2004), driven primarily by industrial exports, consumer spending, construction, and foreign direct investments, all of which propelled Ireland's per capita GDP ($52,940 in 2005, compared to the UK's $38,860) to a level 10% above that of the four big European economies and the second highest in the EU after Luxembourg. The political and economic stability provided by Irish government policies brought inflation and budget deficits under control after two years of overheating, resulting in increased labour force skills, employment, and foreign investments. Ireland's population of 4.1 million, growing at 1.2% yearly, is the youngest in the EU with more than 53% below the age of 35. Literacy is high, poverty is low, and government forecasts private consumption to grow at 5.6% and GDP ($222 bn in 2005) to grow steadily at 4.7% in 2006. The economic boom triggered substantial changes in the Irish retail landscape and transformed what was once a collection of small shops offering specialised services, small general stores offering various dry goods and fresh foods, and department stores selling clothes and household items. Rapid growth increased mobility, improving the access to information and altering the tastes and shopping habits of consumers, who are more discriminating in getting the highest possible quality at the lowest possible price. The retail sector is adapting to these changes through continuous entrepreneurial innovation and business consolidation. There are currently eleven categories of retail marketing channels in Ireland, ranging from small boutiques to large hypermarkets (Forfs, 2006). The average consumer in Ireland is young, affluent, well educated, employed, and with a high disposable income. The second part of the paper will be devoted to an analysis of Ireland's consumer profile. Environmental Assessment of Ireland's Retail Sector Probably the most important development in Ireland has been the lifting in January 2006, according to plan, of the Groceries Order, a 20-year old law designed to minimise cutthroat price competition among retailers by prohibiting below invoice selling (CSG, 2005). We made a LoNGPEST analysis to assess the political, economic, social, and technological effects of the recent lifting of the Groceries Order that may have widespread local, national, and global consequences. Overview of the Retail Market Sector Table 1 contains an overview of the top competitors in Ireland's retail market sector. Dunnes is a local company that has been doing business for some time. It has grown through acquisitions, mergers, and profit-led expansion. Tesco Ireland is a subsidiary of the UK's Tesco plc that grew by way of acquisitions in the last ten years, notably of the Quinnsworth and Crazy Prices outlets. Musgrave is the biggest of the symbols, companies that acquire and franchise retail shops and stores of all sizes selling a variety of products, and that compete with the multiples for market share. Musgrave owns the Supervalu (with more than 173 branches alone) and Centra chain of stores. BWG, a food and drinks wholesaler that serves the retail sector, is included for comparison purposes. It is estimated that Dunnes and Tesco Ireland, the two major supermarket chains also known as multiples, and Musgrave, control over 65% of the country's retail market (Forfs, 2006). A third supermarket chain, Superquinn, has 21 stores (2 small supermarkets, 15 large supermarkets, and 4 hypermarts); Marks & Spencer operate a small number of supermarket sites; and Spar and Londis have supermarket format franchise stores, with their Eurospar and Londis Plus formats. Although these represent a minority of stores, they are intensifying the competition with the established multiples and symbols (Wikipedia, 2006). How large is the retail market in Ireland Forfs (2006) indicated that the sector accounts for 6-7% of GDP, and with Ireland's GDP at $222 bn in 2005, we can estimate the retail market size to be a total of $13-15bn sales annually. Wal-Mart's target is to get at least 10% of this amount or some $1.3-1.5bn in sales in two years. Analysis of the Strategic Environment We now go into the political, economic, social, and technological factors we should consider to help design our penetration strategy for the Irish market. Political Factors There are predictions (Economist, 2005b) that mounting disagreements among the dominant political parties over the pace of reform in Ireland will result in an early election before the end of term in 2007. The lifting of the Groceries Order due to pressures from consumer groups, private corporations, the World Trade Organisation (WTO), and EU regulations are part of the reform process that affect parts of Irish society. The Economist (2005b) assures, though, that "the election winner will stick broadly to the current policy mix that is delivering good results that are the envy of Europe." It is the work of politicians to spread the wealth, look after the welfare of the disadvantaged social sectors, and to find ways to communicate the message that private business is good for the country. Politicians are concerned about issues of competition and its effect on prices and the economy. They fear that if expectations of lower prices are overestimated - because economic theory says that more competition should bring down prices - and the actual savings are much less, there would be a political backlash against those who advocated reform. Some politicians like Fine Gael TD for Sligo-Leitrim John Perry is also a retailer who fears the effects of competition from the established multiples and symbols. He predicts (Checkout, 2005a) that the lifting of the Groceries Order is a: "Potential minefield if its abolitionleads to job losses, shops closures, or suppliers going out of business. Take a small village or town that loses its only shop. That would be a powerful local issue for the opposition to use against a sitting Fianna Fail candidate. In Ireland, where local political issues dominate, that could be a very effective tool. On the other hand, it's going to be very difficult for the government to prove there have been real and noticeable price reductions by the next election." Another factor is Wal-Mart's reputation on labour unions and health care (Economist, 2006). Early this year, Dunnes was in a controversy for laying off one of its shop stewards at their Crumlin store for wearing her union badge to work. For this, a blog called Dunnes the "Wal-Mart of Ireland" and for resorting to "Walmartish" practices (UFCWIU, 2005). In the meantime, as uncertainty marks the industry, the government may decide to create a regulatory framework to promote competition in the retail trade to prevent the worst excesses of predatory pricing. These, however, need to be aligned with WTO and EU directives. It is possible the government will decide to do nothing, an action others see as a mistake because it would "allow multiples to rule the sector like their own personal fiefdom, and there are too many things at stake(Cosgrave, 2005)." The Irish government has extensive regulations on space allocations, store hours, and taxation levels of businesses. Whilst tax rates are very attractive and amongst the lowest in the EU, the Order's lifting may create a backlash that may change this in the future. Economic Factors Recent economic slowdowns in 2002-2003 decreased disposable incomes, with negative effects on retailing turnover. Economic recovery came in 2004-2005, but the lifting of the Order may lead to negative effects of restructuring with adverse consequences for the retail market sector. Despite Ireland's rosy economic performance and forecasts (ESRI, 2004), the spectre of global recession remains a threat. The goal of providing low prices, however, may contribute to alleviation of the resulting adverse economic conditions. The lifting of the Order opens Ireland to greater foreign competition, resulting in consolidation and bringing down the total number of retail outlets in business. Overall, business will be tough and "mark the beginning of the end for some businesses" (Cosgrave, 2005), and only those ready to compete on the basis of efficiency and good marketing techniques will survive. The major shake-up will lead to buy-outs and mergers among the retailers and in the supply chain, inevitably leading to trade and job losses. This is an opportunity for Wal-Mart to get into the sector. The industry acknowledged that they are "fearful" that Asda (Wal-Mart's subsidiary in the UK and that has stores in Northern Ireland) is about to enter. Retail industry magazine Checkout (2005a) pointed out that "it would be ironic if Asda did enter the market with the purchase of a major retailer and caused a drop in prices by initiating a price war. But for the moment, that is unlikely to happen. Dunnes seem unwilling to sell and Superquinn are pursuing their upmarket dreams. If Asda want in, they will have to do it on a store-by-store basis." Our positive experience (focus on non-food items, worker training, and helping local shops increase their sales through our stores) in our ten Asda stores in Northern Ireland (Checkout, 2005b) will certainly help. Predatory pricing issues will dominate with the lifting of the Order. This strategy used by businesses (not only the retail sector) includes the use of loss leaders as a marketing tool (Bagozzi, 1986, p. 55-56). It is unpopular among primary producers like dairy farmers, because the pressure to bring down prices of items used in store promotions will bring down prices of primary products, with serious social consequences (e.g., increased farm poverty). Social Factors Farmers fear that predatory pricing will decrease their incomes (see previous section). On the other hand, improved competition can also benefit farmers as the multiples and symbols gain market share, resulting in increased demand for primary products. Research (Collins, 2001) has shown that competition will bring down prices, but higher demand will also bring in higher incomes, as our Northern Ireland experience has shown. Half of Ireland's population is concentrated (CIA, 2006) around Dublin (pop. 1.75 million), and a significant portion of the remaining 60% is around four counties: Cork (pop. 140,000), Limerick (pop. 80,000), Galway (pop. 63,000), and Waterford (pop. 45,000). This characteristic of Ireland's population density is one reason why the retail infrastructure remains unconsolidated, making it a challenge for multiples to achieve market penetration outside urban centres. Migration towards the cities continuously take place, resulting in increased population density and opportunities for independent retailers to access remote consumers. Poverty remains a key concern, and the Order lifting's potential effects on the purchasing power of the poor was a main issue for past discussions. Problems in infrastructure and transport and the access to healthy, affordable food in the rural areas are equally contentious issues. Moreover, multiples and symbols are not expected to open stores in rural areas where the purchasing power is low. This is one reason why, in order to win in the competitive market place, some multiples like Tesco and Dunnes offer free transport from the rurals to the cities, threatening the survival of small shops that cater primarily to those who do not have the means to travel. Wal-mart needs to consider this accessibility issue. Another social issue is the growing incidence of obesity. Checkout (2005a) mentions of pressures linking food desserts (sold by the bigger supermarkets) and poor nutrition and obesity, leading to calls for more government regulations to address this problem. Technological Factors One result of the intense competition in the retail market is the pressure to bring down the cost of doing business for big players to sustain an EDLP (Every Day Low Prices) strategy. Consolidation and the drive for greater efficiency will mean companies merging their information technology systems, sales teams, and administrative staff. Those companies that have the managerial, financial, and technological resources will have better chances of surviving the shakeout. Companies not ready will be pushed to the wall: bought, merged, or closed. Wal-Mart will need to study which of the smaller players we can buy or merge with our Asda units, and where to best locate our stores. Pressures from the WTO and EU developments and the appreciation of the euro will push retailers to be more innovative. Sophisticated advertising and technology platforms can be used to target consumers with the use of smart cards, data mining, and customer relationship management systems (Euromonitor, 2004). Ireland's information technology (IT) infrastructure is among the best in Europe, and the presence of workers skilled in software programming are among the growth drivers in the economy (Collins, 2001, pp. 553-555). It also has an advanced telecommunications infrastructure that facilitates retailers' management of the supply chain (Forfs, 2006). Ireland, one of the growth centres for business process outsourcing for American companies, is also a favourite low-cost location as a manufacturing site - for U.S. companies to penetrate the EU market - because of its low labour costs, its advanced technology infrastructure, and numbers of skilled IT workers (Barry, 2005, pp. 23-24). Profile of the Irish Retail Market Consumer This second part is a deeper look into the retail sector target markets. The demographics of Ireland is summarised in Table 2. More than half of the country belongs to the 15-54 years age range: the young, the educated, and professionals with disposable incomes. A study (ITW, 2001) showed that Irish households spend half their income on food and drink, consumer goods, clothes, and shoes. The growth of small supermarkets, convenience stores, and local stores are due to changing consumer lifestyles and the increased demand for convenience shopping. Stores for luxury items have increased, reflecting more sophisticated consumerism (Euromonitor, 2004). Euromonitor highlights the favourable influence of a relatively young and fast-growing population and the impact of migration on the economy, with Irish nationals returning to Ireland remaining the largest immigrant group. Although the buying power of these consumers is an opportunity, the high degree of education and information awareness they possess is a threat. We need to fix our negative image through a public relations campaign (Economist, 2005b). We also need to adjust our corporate health care and labour union practices and improve our communication with our associates in order for them to understand the nature of their employment situation, using our Northern Ireland and U.K. experiences in this effort. To summarise, the Forfs Study (2006, 2.1.3) considered the following change drivers in Ireland's retail market sector: More intense competition for sales and margins growth; Retailers will increase their power throughout the supply chain; Changing consumer tastes will demand higher levels of service and convenience; Changing consumer shopping practices; Consumers will have an increasingly international outlook; Technology will improve data collection and analysis of consumer buying behaviour, communications, and customer services; and, More focused marketing to consumers. These changes have taken place in other EU countries, and based on experience supermarkets need to provide retail offerings tailored to the needs of customers (Forfs, 2006, 2.3.1). Given the positive experiences, most especially in the UK, Forfs suggested the following retail formats to cover different market segments: Top-ups (3,700 to 19,000 sq. ft.) in town centre or convenient sites; Compacts (16,000-25,000 sq. ft.) in edge of town or market town locations; and, Stand alone petrol stations convenience stores with a wider than usual range of products, including own brands. While a superstore may typically carry over 25,000 lines, these new store formats can carry anywhere from 2,000 to 8,000 lines, mostly fresh food and produce. Forecourt retailing is one way to increase market shares through linkages with petrol companies and the branding of shops (Forfas, 2006, 3.3) by which hypermarkets have gained substantial petrol market shares in the UK (22.3%) and France (48.9%). These facilities focus on top-up shoppers and impulse buyers in urban areas and offer fresh produce, bakery products, and traditional groceries. Conclusions The retail market sector in Ireland will only become more competitive and pose a challenge for Wal-Mart. Given these developments, the business development team is making the following major recommendations: Use our Asda experiences in the U.K. and Northern Ireland to address image issues to gain and ensure customer loyalty and provide marketing focus. Study the best way to increase branches in Ireland: purchase other multiples or independent stores, multiply Asda branches, or use a combination of all. Study in detail the needs and demographics of Irish consumers, most especially the growing affluent population and migrants, to determine the quantity and breadth of product lines in our stores. We include a proposed scheme for segmentation of the Irish retail market in Table 3 that can guide us in finalising our store roll-out plans (e.g., stores to buy or put up in specific locations). Leverage our technology and financial advantages to continue EDLP in our stores for the benefit of consumers and suppliers. Use innovative retailing formats similar to forecourt retailing by establishing linkages with petrol stations, financial institutions, and health care centres to provide greater shopping convenience to our customers. We hope this report will help everyone at Wal-Mart think ahead of the curve and deliver novel solutions for the benefit and convenience of shoppers in Ireland. Reference List Bagozzi, R. P. (1986). Marketing Management: Strategies, Tactics, New Horizons. In G. E. Germane (Ed.), The Executive Course. Reading: Addison-Wesley. Barry, F. (2005). Future Irish Growth: Opportunities, Catalysts, Constraints. ESRI Studies. Retrieved from: http://www.esri.ie/pdf/QEC2005Win_SA_Barry_Future%20Irish%20Growth.pdf Burnham, J.B. (2003). Why Ireland Boomed. The Independent Review, vol. VII, n.4, Spring 2003, pp. 537- 556. Checkout (2005a). Reactions to the Groceries Order. December 2005 issue. Retrieved 6 February 2006, from http://www.checkout.ie/Feature.aspID=222 Checkout (2005b). Fant-asda-ic! November 2005 issue. Retrieved 8 February 2006, from http://www.checkout.ie/Feature.aspID=219 CIA (Central Intelligence Agency) (2006). Republic of Ireland. CIA Factbook. Retrieved 6 February 2006, from http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/ei.html Collins, A. (2001). Irish Food Manufacturers' Customer and Brand Portfolios: The impact of structural change in the Grocery Market. Research paper presented in 2001 at the NDP funded Relay conference "Irish Food Meeting Retailer and Consumer Needs" held at University College Dublin. Cosgrave, T. (2005). Editor's Message. Checkout, December 2005 issue. Retrieved 7 February 2006, from http://www.checkout.ie/Newslist.aspMonth_ID=2005-12 CSG (Consumer Strategy Group) (2005). The Groceries Order. Irish Consumer. Retrieved 6 February 2006, from http://www.irishconsumer.ie/report/forward/ groceries_review.html Economist, The (2005a). Be kind to be cruel. Economist, 29 Oct-4 Nov 2005, 62. Economist, The (2005b). The World in 2006. London: Economist. Economist, The (2006). This year's political punch-bag Economist, 21-27 Sep 2006, 39. ESRI (2004). Measuring Ireland's Progress. Quarterly Economic Commentary, Winter 2005. Retrieved 8 February 2006, from http://www.cso.ie/releasespublications/documents/other_releases/2004/ progress/measuringirelandsprogress.pdf Euromonitor (2004). Retailing in Ireland (May 2004). Retrieved 8 February 2006, from http://www.euromonitor.com/reportsummary.aspxfolder=Retailing_in_Ireland&industryfolder=Retailing Forfs (2006). The Dynamics of the Retail Sector in Ireland. Retrieved 7 February 2006, from http://www.forfas.ie/publications/retail_dynam/overview.htm ITW (Integrated Technology Web) (2001). Comprehensive Guide to Selling and Investing in Ireland. Retrieved 6 February 2006, from http://www.itw.ie/business/business.php3 Irish Times (2005). Top 1000 Irish Corporations. Irish Times Online, updated 2006. Retrieved 8 February 2006, from http://www.businessworld.ie/ cd/Top1000/NormalDetails/22.htm UFCWIU (United Food and Commercial Workers International Union ) (2005). "Turn up the pressure at the Wal-Mart of Ireland". [On-line Blog] . Retrieved 8 February 2006, from http://forum.wakeupwalmart.com/forum/ viewtopic.phpp=6080&sid=2fbd1e835655ee7cda46b0a5f0ecafa7 Wikipedia (2005). Retailing in Ireland. In Wikipedia.com. Retrieved 7 February 2006, from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Retail_in_Ireland Appendix List Table 1. Market Competitors in Ireland (Figures adjusted according to 2004-2005 data). Table 2. Ireland's population by age group (in %). Table 3. Proposed market segmentation of Ireland retail sector Table 1. Market Competitors. Market Competitors (Adjusted based on 2004-2005 data) Dunnes Tesco Ireland Musgrave BWG Turnover In billions 2.8 2.144 3.341 1.843 Profits In millions n.d. 139 59.3 37 Branches 123 91 >173 n.d. Employees 11,800 18,000 9,000 644 Notes Privately- owned Multiple Tesco plc UK Subsidiary Wholesalers/Symbols/ Retailers Note: n.d. = no data Sources: Forfs, 2006; Irish Times, 2005. Table 2. Population by Age Group Population by Age Group (%) Age in years Share in % 0-14 29.4 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 17.4 14.2 12.0 8.7 52.3 55-64 65+ 8.0 10.9 Note: Figures are for 2001. Source: ITW, 2001. Table 3. Proposed market segmentation of Ireland retail sector Proposed market segmentation Segments Store formats Young Affluent Students Specialty shops Discounters/Convenience stores Compact shops close to Universities Young Affluent Professionals/Migrants Male/Female Specialty shops Forecourt shop outlets Compact shops Middle-aged Professionals/Migrants Male/Female Specialty shops Forecourt shop outlets Compact shops in business districts Discounters Senior citizens, rural/urban Discounters One-stop shopping center Read More