How will a governmental shutdown affect the American people - Research Proposal Example

? How will a governmental shutdown affect the American people? Table of Contents Table of Contents Introduction 2 Problem ment 5 Rationale for the Research 5 Statement of the Research Objectives 6 Hypothesis 7 Summary 8 Review of Literature 9 Methodology 10 Research Design 11 Proposed Analysis of the Data 13 Appendix I - Time Schedule 14 Appendix II - Resources Needed 15 Appendix III - Personnel 15 Appendix IV - Budget 15 Appendix V - Needed Assurances & Clearances 16 Appendix VI - Surveys/Questionnaires/Interviews 16 Sources Cited 19 Introduction In 2011, the U.S. Congress passed a last-minute compromise bill authorizing the raising of the national debt limit which narrowly escaped a shutdown of the Federal government and its associated agencies. The threat of a U.S. government shutdown has major significance for the international financial markets, the employees of the Federal government, and the people who rely on it for goods, services, and payments. A U.S. government shutdown may be temporary and limited in effect, as it was in 1995 during the Clinton administration when the Congress and White House became deadlocked in a budgetary impasse. The changing economic climate of the 21st Century, following the global meltdown of the financial system in 2008, means that another occurrence of this event could lead to new and unintended consequences. The global economy is weak currently and emerging from a period of recession in the USA and Europe, largely caused by the consequences of years of wasteful government spending and debt. The U.S. national debt now stands at over $14.5 trillion, a total greater than the complete Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the entire country and all of its annual economic activity combined. While Congress and the White House negotiated in 2011 and failed to come to concrete terms on real cuts in spending and debt reduction, the Standard & Poor’s rating agency for the first time downgraded the U.S. credit rating, citing the political impasse as a major reason. (Detrixhe, 2011) Consequently, a U.S. government shutdown in the current political and economic climate could have significantly different or more severe effects in the contemporary milieu than it did in the 1990’s when it last occurred, and these consequences would likely not be contained solely in the United States due to the complex interrelationships present in the global economy. The most immediate and obvious effects of a U.S. government shutdown would be seen for Federal government employees, who would be essentially laid off without payment until the impasse is resolved. The government in this situation makes a determination as to which Federal employees are considered “essential” to national security and keeping the U.S. Congress running, and which are to be considered “non-essential” employees, to be suspended from work without payment. As Ewen MacAskill (2011) of the Guardian Newspaper reported, “The US Congress has begun sending out letters warning staff they will be suspended from this weekend along with hundreds of thousands of other workers as part of a looming federal government shutdown. The letters inform staff whether they are regarded as essential – necessary to maintain security and keep Congress running – or non-essential.” (MacAskill, 2011) MacAskill (2011) and other analysts suggest that approximately 800,000 “non-essential” employees of the Federal government would lose their jobs and salaries at least temporarily until the budgetary issues are resolved. (MacAskill, 2011) Yet, this immediate economic effect of placing nearly 1 million people out of work would have an inherently restrictive or contractive effect on the U.S. economy. Dean Praetorius (2011) listed nine possible effects of a U.S. government shutdown that shows the ripple effects of this outcome in the domestic environment and larger global economy: 1. Lost Money: “The last shutdown cost taxpayers $800 million, including $400 million in wages to federal workers who did not report to work”. (Praetorius, 2011) 2. Social Security: While standard Social Security payments may be delayed, the agency would be unable to process new applications or issue new benefits. 3. Medicare: Similar to Social Security, existing programs and payments may be disrupted, but the administration of accounts would also be limited. 4. Police and Public Safety: “The 1995-1996 shutdown caused delays in case processing, recruitment, testing and hiring, and reportedly suspended cases involving bankruptcy and child-support.” (Praetorius, 2011) 5. Environment: EPA programs designed to clean or protect the environment would be considered “non-essential” programs and suspended. 6. National Parks/Museums: The national parks and museums managed by the Federal government would be closed and staff forced to stay home from their positions during a shutdown. 7. Passports/Travel: The issuance of new passports and travel visas would be halted or delayed, impacting domestic U.S. tourism and foreign travel. 8. Veterans Services: The VA and other veteran’s agencies would be severely limited in serving the needs of soldiers and former soldiers seeking aid or assistance. 9. Government Loans: “A government shutdown could result in the delay of FHA mortgage loans that low-and-moderate-income families often depend on”. (Praetorius, 2011) Thus, the division between “essential” and “non-essential” Federal government staff would preserve vital services such as the military, FBI, and Department of Homeland Security so that there is unlikely to be a severe national security risk in the instance of a U.S. government shutdown, but the wider impact on the economy and social services would be more severe. The duration of a U.S. government shutdown would also greatly determine the long-term impact of the event on the country and the world. Problem Statement This research project will investigate the consequences of a U.S. government shutdown by looking at the immediate, secondary, and peripheral effects related to the stoppage of Federal government services through the division of “essential” and “non-essential” services. While the focus of this research is directed at determining primarily the domestic and international economic impact of such an event, as occurred in 1995, there will also be an inquiry into the related social effects, as represented in values, opinions, ideologies, and political movements. Consequently, the research will involve a combination of quantitative and qualitative methodologies so that the direct economic and social impacts can be studied from a variety of perspectives. One result of this methodology is that it can determine which groups are more likely to be impacted directly by a U.S. government shutdown, and which sectors are more likely to experience peripheral or indirect effects of the problem. The application of this research is important to risk management, advance planning for contingencies in business, and the advance preparation of alternative resources to replace the services most directly affected by the impasse. In the subjective realm of drawing social value conclusions from the event in the larger general public, a polling method will be devised to sample a sector of the population to determine how a U.S. government shutdown would affect public opinion, personal beliefs, and political views in American society. Rationale for the Research The centrality of the U.S. government as the largest global superpower and world’s largest economy, as well as the vast influence that government activity has over GDP, requires that a quantitative methodology be applied to the question and through this research a general estimation of the financial costs of a Federal government shutdown should be able to be calculated. The subtle social effects such as the manner in which the perception of such an event would impact the people’s own views and values is more difficult to measure quantitatively, therefore qualitative methodologies that mirror political polling should be implemented in order to assess the subjective effects on population mentality. Both of these approaches to the inquiry are important, because while the economic effects of a shutdown can impact business sectors across a wide range of industry, retail, and the service sectors, the subjective effects related to public opinion can have a long-lasting and far-reaching political impact. This research will combine the two elements and methodologies in order to present a balanced and accurate portrait of the potential effects of a government shutdown that can assist in understanding, planning, and management of the consequences of such an event, if it is to occur again in the future. Statement of the Research Objectives The purpose and the objectives for this study are to provide a detailed, objective, and balanced study of the consequences of a U.S. government shutdown for the domestic and global economies. The research will also attempt to understand the social psychology of the event and the potential impact on political views, voting patterns, and popular support for government in the U.S. population. In this manner, the research will focus on economic statistics related to government activity and the loss of public services during a U.S. government shutdown, while also employing political polling methodologies for understanding the impact that such an event would have on personal values in the citizenry. In summary, the research seeks to employ a combination of qualitative and quantitative methodologies to present a balanced investigation of the issues that would be of use across a wide variety of sectors of business, industry, and politics. Hypothesis The central hypothesis of the research is that if the U.S. government shuts down its operation of “non-essential” services as part of a budgetary impasse or political debate, the economic impact will be immediate and severe for the U.S. economy, causing ripple effects that are felt around the world, while the psychological effects in the population will relate to longer term political views, organizational patterns, and support for governmental policies. The hypothesis supposes that a U.S. government shutdown will have a social impact on the way that citizens view the political parties, Congress, and Presidential administration, which will further impact the electoral process. The research will investigate the hypothesis from a dual methodology of quantitative investigation into economics and qualitative investigation into political values through polling. On completion of the proposed survey of 1500 people from across the United States, the hypothesis should be able to be considered and analyzed in relation to the data gathered, which should in turn either validate or invalidate the central thesis. In this regard, the research hypothesis anticipates that the polling will depict a heightened feeling of negativity and dissatisfaction in the citizenry with the Federal government due to a financial shutdown, and that this should lead to concordant changes of opinion or direction in political organization. Definition of Terms For the purposes of this research, a “government shutdown” shall be defined as the stopping or halting of governmental services due to economic, financial, or budgetary restrictions and concerns. It should be noted that the type of “government shutdown” discussed in the research paper is produced entirely due to internal political conflicts and does not refer to the temporary loss of services due to natural disaster, war, or terrorist attacks. The research will track the U.S. government’s own division of services into “essential” and “non-essential” categories. Summary A U.S. government shutdown can result from a budgetary impasse, as occurred during the Clinton administration, or in failing to raise the national debt limit, as nearly occurred this year during the Obama administration. A U.S. government shutdown may also occur if Congress fails to agree on an annual budget or an appropriations bill that extends operations. The research proposal as outlined will inquire into the economic and social consequences that may occur in America and internationally if the U.S. government shuts down due to a budgetary impasse. The Federal government’s division of “essential” and “non-essential” services will be reviewed in order to build an understanding of what problems may arise in different sectors due to the work stoppages. The research will focus on economic interpretation through quantitative methodologies that are related to risk management in the financial sector. In this manner, the research itself may be of assistance for business planning for contingencies in the case of a U.S. government shutdown. Qualitative methodologies will be implemented in order to build an understanding of the potential social consequences that cannot be definitively quantified. The research will include a poll distributed over 50 states and conducted by phone with 1500 people selected by random. This poll will be modeled after Gallup and other professional research methods that will query the political and social views of U.S. citizens to the question of a U.S. government shutdown. Specifically, the poll will seek to query citizens on how their political and social views or opinions will change in the event of a U.S. government shutdown. In interpreting the data from the poll, a general picture of the social effects of a budgetary impasse and U.S. government shutdown in the general population can be extrapolated. Combined with the economic data, this research should be informative to the risk management community, such as financial services, insurance companies, and political analysts who seek to plan for contingencies and emergency situations that may occur. The research paper should conclude with a section of analysis which discusses the economic and social data as well as the probability that a U.S. government shutdown will occur by reviewing the combination of forces that could lead to its development in Washington. Review of Literature Kevin R. Kosar’s study for the U.S. Congress on the social and economic effects of a government shutdown will be taken as a leading example of the methodology and approach taken in the first part of the research. This report, entitled “Shutdown of the Federal Government: Causes, Effects, and Process” (2003) discusses the range of issues that contribute to a budgetary impasse, as well as the variety of sectors of industry, science, law, and academia that are impacted by the loss of funding. (Kosar, 2003) Michael Carlowicz’s Harvard study on the impact of the 1995 U.S. government shutdown on higher research entitled “Fallout from U.S. Government shutdown will be long lasting” (1996) will be used as an example of the methodology to be pursued in building the general overview of sectors and industries that will be affected by the loss of work, funding, and stoppage of operations. (Carlowicz, 1996) Richard S. Conley’s University of Florida study on the effects of the 1995 government shutdown during the Clinton administration also relates to this research directly through its investigation of the social and political effects of the crisis. Entitled “President Clinton and the Republican Congress, 1995-2000: Political and Policy Dimensions of Veto Politics in Divided Government,” the study delves deeply into the relationship between the Republican majority Congress and the Democratic administration of Clinton in both his first and second terms. (Conley, 2001) Another detailed study of the Clinton administration government shutdowns is the Congressional Research Service’s “Shutdown of the Federal Government: Effects on the 'Federal Workforce And Other Sectors,” by James P. McGrath (1997), which provides a detailed accounting of how many Federal workers were furloughed and for what period of time. (McGrath, 1997) This report conducts research into the legal and policy consequences of the budgetary impasse. A study from 2011 references the potential results of a U.S. budgetary impasse that leads to a government shutdown. This study was produced by the Library of Congress Research Service under the direction of Levit et al., entitled “Reaching the Debt Limit: Background and Potential Effects on Government Operations” (Levit et al., 2011) This study can be seen as another methodological and structural guide for the research proposed in drawing the economic conclusions from the stoppage of government services. Methodology After a thorough review of the literature such as that listed above, the research will attempt to build an initial broad overview of the range of services that would be lost due to a U.S. government shutdown. The methodology categorizes the consequences from such an event into categories based upon the sector of services that are most affected, and then seeks to illustrate the wider impact in domestic and foreign sectors of business and society. From this initial overview, which is similar to the existing academic research on the topic, there will be a focus on economic data in employing quantitative research methodologies to the topic. In the second part, an original research project based on qualitative methodologies will be implemented nationwide, using a telephone polling method of 1500 people across 50 States selected at random. A survey will be developed of 10 questions that will query registered voters on their political reactions to the news of a government shutdown. Specifically, these questions will attempt to give the respondents a chance to express their thoughts, values, and opinions within a structure that can be analyzed as representative of a cross-section of national culture. This poll data will suggest the possible changes in social values that can accompany the economic effects of a U.S. government shutdown. Research Design The poll will be designed following professional political survey methodologies such as those used by Gallup, news magazines, and newspapers, consisting of a random sample of 30 persons per State contacted via telephone. The first question will be to assess the respondent’s willingness to participate in the poll, and thus will not be included as part of the data analysis. The second question will query whether or not the person is a registered voter. This question can be considered as for screening or the purposes of limiting the data set of respondents. If the person is not a registered voter, then the interview will not proceed, but the pollster will politely explain that the survey is for registered voters only. If the person is a registered voter, the third question will be to query which political party they are identified with personally. The respondents should be given the opportunity to signal Republican, Democrat, Independent, or any third party with the results being recorded for data analysis. The next set of 10 questions should be standardized across all participants and ask a series of questions about their political views and reactions to a U.S. government shutdown. These questions should focus on social values, political alignment, policy decisions, and illustrate through a numerical rating system the individual’s agreement or disagreement with the statement given by the poll taker. Another option is to include a final section of a “free response” where the spontaneous opinions of the participants can be collected on the issue and used for purposes of comparison, such as a tag cloud. Because this would in some ways require recording the phone calls to be accurate, and that in turn would lead to a further complication of permission seeking and telephone survey regulation, it was decided to exclude this from the final option and focus solely on a poll with 10 standardized questions that could be related to a scale of 1 to 5 in reference to whether the participants “strongly agree,” “strongly disagree,” etc. with an additional choice of “0” in the data entry for “no opinion”. Instrumentation and Data Collection Plans There are two main options for conducting the telephone poll, which are to conduct the research personally or hire a professional polling group to make the phone calls. The choice in this instance is to conduct the research personally, and to do so using a VoIP phone to save costs on long distance calls. The telephone numbers should be selected randomly, with 30 participants needed from each State. These numbers should be selected by city and county to balance rural and urban respondents. The participants will be required to consent to take part in the poll by vocal verification. The data should be entered into an Excel spreadsheet using a desktop or laptop computer and Microsoft Windows. The Excel spreadsheet should also be used to generate tables, charts, and other tools for analysis. Another option is to use a cloud computing option such as SurveyMonkey and to enter the answers to the poll questions directly into the database from a web browser. SurveyMonkey also has data analysis and charting tools that could be incorporated into the research paper. An additional headset and microphone may be required for the VoIP phone. In this manner, one individual can conduct the poll in 50 States over the course of one month, entering the results into a spreadsheet and using the VoIP phone for the calls. Proposed Analysis of the Data The data from the poll will be charted into an initial set of 10 pie charts which will be color coded to display the percentage of participants who agreed with a particular point of view. Bar graphs may also be used in the same manner if they are determined to be more expressive or easier to understand for the reader. The data should then be analyzed further according to political party. Republican, Democrat, Independent, and “Third Party” should be the initial comparison, while the “Third Party” data can also be further analyzed according to the actual responses if the data sets are significant. The “Tea Party” will be accepted as a legitimate “Third Party” response separate from the Republican Party, but no encouragement to the respondents to make this association should be stated by the poll taker. The analysis of the data can then proceed according to both qualitative and quantitative methodologies in drawing conclusions from the actual percentage of responses in the cross-section. The charts will be derived from the data in an Excel spreadsheet or a SurveyMonkey database, possibly using both sources for data analysis as necessary. The main variables will be the 10 questions, the 5 point rating system, and the political party affiliated with personally by the respondent. The meaning of this data must be derived from association with political, historical, and economic analysis. Therefore, interpretation of the data should be considered separate from analysis, with the synthesis of the two leading to the actual conclusions derived from the data. The conclusions should relate the meaning of the social values articulated in the questions to the historical, political, and economic context. Implications and Limitations The limitations of the study can be considered in two parts. In the first, it can be considered unrealistic to be able to chart the full financial impact related to the economic activity in the domestic and foreign markets. Therefore, the estimations given need to be questioned according to the presumptions made in the analysis. In the poll data, the respondent set of 1500 people is designed to be representative of the entire nation of 300 million people, while it is possible to be unintentionally limited by the actual respondents who agree to participate. It can be expected that less than 50% of those contacted will agree to participate with the study and those that refused participation may have different socio-economic backgrounds, racial identities, religions, or political affiliations than the respondents polled. There is only the intention to track or question for political affiliation, which may also limit the data set in comparison to including non-registered voters or minors. Therefore, the 1500 people selected randomly across 50 States can be seen only as an approximate cross-section, but large enough to be generally representative within a margin of error. Appendix I - Time Schedule The total amount of time proposed for the research is 3 months. This will include an initial month of researching the background literature and writing the poll questions, a month of actually conducting the poll which will also include continuation of the socio-economic study of the issues under research, and a final month dedicated to data interpretation, analysis, and writing the final publication. Appendix II - Resources Needed The main resources needed are a PC with Microsoft Excel or Office, a headset with microphone for use as a VoIP phone, a web browser and internet account, as well as access to peer-reviewed journals for the background research. A SurveyMonkey account, a Skype account, and sufficient funding for long-distance phone calls to conduct the poll are also required. Appendix III - Personnel The choice in this research proposal is to limit the data set to 1500 respondents that can be conducted by a single person using a PC and VoIP phone. This decision is partly based on the budgetary requirements that would accrue if the work for the polling stage was contracted to a professional polling agency for implementation. At this stage, there is only need for one researcher to conduct the poll as outlined, but an expansion of personnel can be considered via volunteers. Appendix IV - Budget The budgetary requirements for this research proposal relate primarily to the technological requirements of the computer, software, and VoIP phone, which can be sourced from the student resources. However, the need to make between 3,000 to 5,000 phone calls to build the data set of 1500 respondents will require a Skype account with an estimated $500 to $1000 dollar cost of long distances charges, dependent on the length of time of the calls. Appendix V - Needed Assurances & Clearances The main issue with legal clearance is to make certain that the requirements for political polling via telephone calls are accorded with and that the phone calls themselves are not recorded without the permission of participants. As this authorization could potentially make it more difficult to attract telephone respondents to participate in the survey, the recording of phone calls will not be done at all and instead Excel and/or SurveyMonkey will be used for record keeping of responses. The authority of the school would be helpful in building the poll, as it could lead to more respondents participating with the questions. Appendix VI - Surveys/Questionnaires/Interviews Introduction: I am ----- calling as part of a survey of political research from the University of ----which is inquiring as to the political views of Americans with regard to the potential shutdown of the U.S. government over deficit and budgetary issues. I am wondering if you would be willing to participate and answer a few questions? Respondent: (Y or N) If N: Ok, thank you very much for your time. Have a nice day. If Y: First, are you a registered voter? If N: I am sorry, we are only able to include registered voters in the poll at this time. Have a nice day and thank you for your time. If Y: Which political Party are you registered with? Respondent: (Choice of: Republican, Democrat, Independent, Green Party, Libertarian Party, Tea Party, Socialist/Communist/Workers Party, Other). Pollster: Ok. I would like to ask you a series of 10 questions on your views related to the U.S. budget, the debt ceiling, Obama, Congress, and the possibility of a U.S. government shutdown following a budgetary impasse. Please rate your response on a scale of one to five, with one being “strongly agree” and five being “strongly disagree”. You can also “somewhat” agree or disagree with the statement. Pollster: To what degree do you agree or disagree with the following statements? 1. President Obama is the main cause and problem of the U.S. budgetary impasse. Respondent: (1: “strongly agree” to 5: “strongly disagree”) 2. The U.S. Congress is primarily to blame for the economic problems of the country. Respondent: (1: “strongly agree” to 5: “strongly disagree”) 3. The Republican Party is responsible for the economic problems in Washington. Respondent: (1: “strongly agree” to 5: “strongly disagree”) 4. The Democratic Party is responsible for the economic problems in Washington. Respondent: (1: “strongly agree” to 5: “strongly disagree”) 5. A U.S. government shutdown is likely to happen again soon in the country. Respondent: (1: “strongly agree” to 5: “strongly disagree”) 6. The national debt level is the main problem with the financial system in America. Respondent: (1: “strongly agree” to 5: “strongly disagree”) 7. High taxes are the main problem with the financial system in America. Respondent: (1: “strongly agree” to 5: “strongly disagree”) 8. Corruption and inefficiency in Washington are the main problems with the economic system in America. Respondent: (1: “strongly agree” to 5: “strongly disagree”) 9. A U.S. government shutdown will seriously affect my life, America, and the global economic system. Respondent: (1: “strongly agree” to 5: “strongly disagree”) 10. A U.S. government shutdown will cause me to switch my political party affiliation or vote differently than I have in the past. Respondent: (1: “strongly agree” to 5: “strongly disagree”) Pollster: Thank you very much for your time and participation in our study. Sources Cited Carlowicz, Michael (1996). Fallout from U.S. Government shutdown will be long lasting. Eos, Transactions American Geophysical Union, Volume 77, Issue 4, p. 25-26. Retrieved from http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1996EOSTr..77...25C Conley, Richard S. (2001). “President Clinton and the Republican Congress, 1995-2000: Political and Policy Dimensions of Veto Politics in Divided Government.” American Political Science Association, August 30-September 2, 2001, San Francisco, CA. Retrieved from http://web.clas.ufl.edu/users/rconley/Clintonvetoespaper.pdf Detrixhe, John (2011). U.S. Loses AAA Credit Rating as S&P Slams Debt Levels, Political Process. Bloomberg, Aug 6, 2011. Retrieved from http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-06/u-s-credit-rating-cut-by-s-p-for-first-time-on-deficit-reduction-accord.html Kosar, Kevin R. (2003). Shutdown of the Federal Government: Causes, Effects, and Process. Congressional Research Service, The Library of Congress. Retrieved from http://www.law.umaryland.edu/marshall/crsreports/crsdocuments/98-844GOV11112003.pdf Levit, Mindy R. ; Brass, Clinton T. ; Nicola, Thomas J. ; Nuschler, Dawn ; Shelton, Alison M. (2011). “Reaching the Debt Limit: Background and Potential Effects on Government Operations.” LIBRARY OF CONGRESS, WASHINGTON DC, CONGRESSIONAL RESEARCH SERVICE. Retrieved from http://oai.dtic.mil/oai/oai?verb=getRecord&metadataPrefix=html&identifier=ADA543519 MacAskill, Ewen (2011). Obama holds out hope US government shutdown can be avoided in Washington. Guardian.co.uk, Friday 8 April 2011 03.36 BST. Retrieved from http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/apr/08/obama-hopes-us-government-shutdown-averted McGrath, James P. (1997). Shutdown of the Federal Government: Effects on the Federal Workforce And Other Sectors. Congressional research Service, Library of Congress, PDF. Retrieved from https://www.nteu.org/Documents/Archived%20CRS%20Shutdown.pdf Praetorius, Dean (2011). Federal Government Shutdown 2011: Possible Effects Of A Shutdown. The Huffington Post, First Posted: 04- 5-11 06:09 PM, Updated: 04- 8-11 06:21 PM. 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