Relations Between Iran and the GCC: Less Growth and More Global Tension - Research Paper Example

The Danger of Iran on the Gulf Cooperation Council Countries Since its formation on May 1981, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries are enjoying rapid economic growth and social progress due to the channeling of energy revenues into infrastructure investment and private sector development. Its member countries, composed of Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Oman, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates, vow to economic and political cooperation in order to attain unity within the region. However, despite the economic advancement enjoyed by the GCC countries, the region remains susceptible to political and social upheavals caused by its unstable relationship in the wider region, especially to the neighboring Iran. According to Cronin and Masalha (2011), the relationship between Iran and GCC countries has been marred by rifts since the US invasion of Iraq and the re-emergence of revolutionary activism within the Iranian political leadership. Early this year, the GCC asked the Iranian government “to play a constructive role in the region and to cease interfering in the internal affairs of GCC Member States and other countries in the region” (GCC, 2011). This paper aims to support the idea that Iran’s interferences in the domestic and regional affairs of GCC countries pose threat and instability in the region. The Iranian Threat: Reasons of Concern Since the 1980s, Iran’s relations with its neighboring Gulf countries had been tense following the country’s efforts to spread Islamic revolution in the region. More recently, the growing concern with Iran has a lot more to do with its influence and role in GCC countries. With the US occupation on Iraq, many perceived Iran to be enhancing its opportunity to spread its strategic interest and reinforce its power in the Gulf region. In fact, according to the study of Burke et. al. (2009), Iran’s danger to the GCC countries mainly stems from the five perceived threats posed by Iran. These enumerated threats include: 1.) Iran’s ambition to acquire nuclear weapons and long-range ballistic missiles; 2.) its support for international terrorism; 3.) Iran’s opposition to the Middle East peace process and its rising political influence there; 4.) its offensive military buildup; and 5.) its threat to the stability of the Gulf States. These political activities and ambitions by the Iranian government have been viewed by GCC states in the same perspective. However, in the report by Dergham (2011), it was revealed that the view on how to deal with the threat of Iranian intimidation and aspiration of power differ from one GCC country to another. For instance, Kuwait has been apprehensive by the recent discovery of Iranian spy cells in the country to which the GCCs condemned as “undermining Kuwait’s security, its national stability and interests of its citizens” (Mulvany, 2011). Whereas countries like Oman can be seen as more friendly to Iran and this highlights the deep divisions among Arab countries (Slackman, 2009). Oman, for instance, has joined Iran in supporting Hamas, an Iranian-backed military group. The country also boycotted a Gulf summit in Egypt to show Oman’s support of Iran. Because of these events, the deepening divide in the GCC countries create the instability not only in the countries around gulf region but to the world economy and security as well. As such, there are varied consequences and underlying costs as a result of Iran-GCC rift. Possible Consequences of the Iran-GCC Rift Because of the growing intensity of relations between Iran and the GCC, the conflict is feared to raise oil prices, cause war, and affect the world affairs as a whole. As oil producing countries, both Iran and the GCC countries deal more with developed economies than with each other or other developing economies. The fear around the world is that growing tension between the GCC countries and Iran will disrupt oil flows and raise oil prices. As a result, the conflict will lead to less growth and more global tension. As oil producing countries, the GCC countries as well as Iran has a large impact on the developed world, hence the interest to not spur any more conflict. All countries around the world are more or less dependent on oil, so it is of outmost interest that the production remains stable. The interest to limit tension for the United States then has two faces: to keep the oil price low and to keep the Middle East peaceful. As to which of these are most important it’s hard to speculate as tension in the Middle East is of grave concern to any administration in the United States. According to Pradhan (2011), the continuing conflict and competition between Iran and the GCC “has been marked by sectarian and ideological differences, clash of interests over the presence of the US in the region, concerns over the Iranian nuclear programme and territorial disputes between Iran and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Certainly, without the reconciliation and dialogue to all parties concerned, it will result to nuclear ward and severely affect the world as a whole. However, there are peaceful solutions and possible reconciliatory talks which have been explored that might suppress the problems in the Gulf region. Solutions to the Strained Relations between Iran and GCC The definite solution to the threats coming from Iran would be to stop or limit their nuclear program. Although Iran officially only has “energy producing purposes” with their nuclear program, there’s little doubt that there’s another aim as well – that aim of course is to produce nuclear weapons in order to wage wars, or more likely to position themselves stronger with their neighbors. Nuclear capability in Iran would be a sever threat to the nearby countries, especially Israel and the GCC countries as well. To stop the program altogether, it would demand some kind of attack on the sites of the nuclear developments. There are two possibilities for this, Israeli attacks or American attacks. Israel has the knowledge to possibly destroy (or more likely delay) the program by aerial attacks. It’s not easy, and the chance of success is limited. The US would have a chance for aerial attacks as well, but again the chance of success is limited, and it might have severe consequences for the US. First off, Iran could increase its support for terrorist organizations around the Middle East and Afghanistan. They could hinder the oil flow from the entire region several ways (e.g. mine the Straits of Hormuz or attack oil facilities in the region) and of greater concern still, Iran could again unleash international attacks on Jewish, American or Western targets. (Fiore, 2011) It is probably not possible to stop the Iranian nuclear program altogether, a less aggressive USA under the Obama administration probably makes that impossible. A more usable solution could be to re-introduce the IAEA inspectors to oversee Iran’s nuclear developments. There will be several positive outcomes from this: 1.) IAEA will know the progress of the program 2.) International mediators might be able to negotiate more closely with Iran, 3.) an “energy only” solution might be more reachable through economic and trade agreements between Iran and the international society (the US, including the western world and the Arab/Israeli neighbors). The obvious start to a solution is to re-introduce the IAEA. Since Iran has recently not allowed any outsiders to assess their nuclear developments, it’s difficult to know how far it has come. Certainly, without peaceful resolution and dialogue, leaders of the world cannot act and unite to prevent the catastrophic siege and conflicts to happen. For now, the best thing to do is to continue the talks and reconciliatory process to ensure a stable Middle East. References The Gulf Cooperation Council. The 21st EU-GCC Joint Council and Ministerial Meeting Abu Dhabi, 20 April 2011. Web. 16 October, 2011. http://www.gcc-sg.org/eng/index5ec6.html?action=Sec-Show&ID=322 Fiore, Massimiliano. The Dangers of a Nuclear Iran, The Limits of Containment. IAI Working Paper 11. July 18th 2011. Web. October 16th 2011. Burke, Arleigh A., Toukan, Abdullah, & Codesman Anthony. GCC - Iran: Operational Analysis of Air, SAM and TBM Forces. 20 August 2009. Web. 16 October 2011. http://csis.org/files/publication/090819_GCC_Iran_AirPower.pdf Dergham, Raghida. Arab Gulf States Agree on Iranian Threat, Disagree on How to Address It. 15 October 2011. Web. 16 October 2011. http://english.alarabiya.net/views/2011/10/15/171894.html Cronin, Stephanie & Masalha, Nur. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the GCC States: Revolution to Realpolitik? August 2011. Web. October 16 2011. Print. Mulvany, Peter. Uncovered Iranian spy cell in Kuwait fuels tension in Gulf region. Middle East Confidential. 5 April 2011. Web. 16 October 2011. http://www.middle-east-confidential.com/182-uncovered-iranian-spy-cell-in-kuwait-fuels-tension-in-gulf-region.html Slackman, Michael:”Oman Navigates Between Iran and Arab Nations”. The New York Times, May 15th 2009. Web, October 16th 2011. Pradhan, Prasanta Kumar. The GCC–Iran Conflict and its Strategic Implications for the Gulf Region. Institute for Defense Studies and Analyses. March 2011. Web. 16 October 2011. http://www.idsa.in/strategicanalysis/35_2/TheGCCIranConflictanditsStrategicImplicationsfortheGulfRegion_pkpradhan The Islamic Republic of Iran and Read More