The Politics of Economic Leadership - Essay Example

The Politics of Economic Leadership Statistical techniques are relevant in every field of study since they are versatile and can execute any analytical function. The statistical technique that would be employed in this case of evaluation is the linear regression model. In political science there is a fundamental need for investigating the origin of issues perceived fundamental in the political arena (Uphoff & Warren 484). It is logical that there are particular facets in the study of higher profile political science that constitute variables in this case per se. In this case the paper would target the analysis of the main facet of political fraternity that is, the reelection of a president (Wood 9). In this scenario, the reelection of the incumbent president would form the dependent variable. The national rate of unemployment would constitute the independent variable. However, it would be imperative to understand that confounding variables are also of a crucial concern. Regression as a statistical tool is important in approximating the extent of relatedness of the information provided. One of the basic questions to ask in this scenario might be, to what extent the reelection of the incumbent president depends on the unemployment rate in a country. Therefore, the linear regression model as the analysis technique will be utilized in aiding the understanding on how the characteristic changes in any case independent variable is altered in spite of the other variables remaining fixed. The evaluation will take into account the causation in the two variables as well as the appropriate way of approving the hypotheses. This analysis will basically rely on the cause and effect of one variable on the other. Principally, it would be logical to outline the cause of high or low rate of unemployment and its effect on the credibility of the incumbent president for reelection (Wood 19). Operationalization of the Variables The essence of the variables’ ability to function in influencing the situations in political scenario is the main reason for their inclusion in this analysis. Starting with the first case of the independent variable, in this case there is need for elaborating on the effect of unemployment rate on the status of the sitting president. The voters constitute a significant portion of the population and these are the individuals who would demand for employment in different sections of the government. According to them as the unemployed rate, they would observe the president’s success to be creating for them the desired employment opportunities. Albeit the rate of employment rates influences the level of economy and the country’s progress, they would first consider their employment before formulating any arguable facts (Boix & Robert 841). The dependent variable which is the reelection in this of the incumbent typically relies on the confidence among the voters. The voters are divided in two main portions basing on the observations of the president. The unemployed would endeavor for employment and gauge the performance of the president through that. Conversely, the employed and the rich would be targeting the growth as well as the development of the economy. In their view, the country has to be well endowed with resources, literacy levels, improved GDP and enhanced infrastructure (Wood 11). Through a critical analysis, a realization is made that the two groups are viewing a similar factor but in different perspectives. Therefore, the reelection of an incumbent president relies on the performance and unemployment rate in a state is a strong element in gauging the performance and the populace confidence. Null and Alternative Hypotheses Unemployment has a direct impact on the economy since it influences individuals’ income as a parameter of the Gross Domestic Product. Conventional intellect stipulates that the results of investigations on job approval rankings for the current president greatly depend on the prevailing status of the country’s economy (Boix & Robert 825). This research relies on a null notion that, the reelection of an incumbent president and his or her popularity in the country. Alternatively a belief that the presidential popularity is enhanced by the performance leading to the improvement of welfare of the subject would also be proved. Regression Analysis In linear regression as a statistical technique, the dependent variable is presumed to be a linear component of the singular or variant independent variables in addition to an error incorporated to cater for all different facets. Regression analysis leads to a "prediction" equation. The equation explains the relation among the variables. In case the relationship is potential (shown in the Rsquare value), entitled for use in predicting values of a single variable provided that the other variables are known. The objective of regression evaluation is to attain approximations of the hidden elements (Uphoff & Warren 481). The regression equation and In this case xi…xn represents unemployment rate and that is the independent variable while yi represents the dependent variable hence, the reelection of the incumbent president. It would be better to determine the unknown values representing the actual effect of the dependent variable on the dependent variable especially on the values depicting possibilities. The  shows the estimates of the variables, b1 depict the entire extent of the variables and the influences on them by other variables. The predicted error in yi in the OLS is the residual but k endeavors to the reduction of the squared variables (Uphoff & Warren 480). E(YiXi) = o + 1Xi is the overall regression line Yi(hat) = bo + b1Xi is the selected regression equation OLS enables for the determination = bo and b1. The OLS generates a line that limits the summation of the squared vertical lengths from the line to the determined data points (Uphoff & Warren 501). President Year Second Quarter GDP in Reelection Year August Unemployment (%) Reelection Status Harry S. Truman 1948 7.50% 3.90% Yes Dwight D. Eisenhower 1956 3.20% 4.10% Yes John F. Kennedy 1964 4.70% 5% Yes Lyndon B. Johnson 1972 9.80% 5.60% Yes Gerald R. Ford 1976 3% 7.80% No Jimmy Carter 1980 -7.90% 7.70% No Ronald Reagan 1984 7.10% 7.50% Yes George Bush Sr 1992 4.30% 7.60% No Bill Clinton 1996 7.10% 5.10% Yes George W. Bush 2004 2.60% 5.40% Yes Barack Obama 2012 1.70% 8.10% Yes The data provided above is based on actual study in the United States economic trends with regards to their political influences and the elections. There is a distinct relationship between the rates of unemployment and the reelection of an incumbent. The data implies that in case the president fails to improve the GDP through employments and slightly other enhancement scenarios then he is likely to fail (Wood 18). With all assumptions involved in regression model as statistical techniques, the current situation presumes that all factors are perfect and constantly (Boix & Robert 809). In the case of the influence of unemployment rates’ contribution in the presidential reelection, the utilization of the previous investigation’s provisions would aid in aiding a breakthrough in this study. As from the elections of year 1976, sitting presidents have been beaten in their propositions for reelection especially where the unemployment rate has surpassed seven percent.  However this evident rule apparently exemplified Ronald Reagan.  Besides, a comparatively little unemployment rate attributed to the reelection of a president Bill Clinton as well as George Bush in the years 1996 and 2004 respectively (Boix & Robert 818).  Contrasting the 1996 scenario, nonetheless, the economy never attributed to the initial concern of the voters in the 2004 general elections in the United States.  In its place, there were other issues such as the national safety, foreign rule, and the candidates’ opinions on terrorism prevention influenced the result of that year’s presidential elections.  Imperatively, sources prophesized that Barack Obama will never win the reelection in the year 2012. Indeed, the incumbent won the election a fact that was guessed to have emanated from the excellent economic performance in his tenure (Wood 21). Conclusion The reelection of the incumbent presidents has been significantly determined by the rates of unemployment from time immemorial. Therefore, the outlined hypothesis on the reelection with regards to the unemployment rates is confirmed. However, there are unique cases where the rule has never been adhered to. Moreover, this condition proves the efficiency of the regression analysis model as a statistical technique that also provides for the residuals. Work Cited Boix, Carles, and Robert E. Goodin. The Oxford Handbook of Comparative Politics. Oxford [u.a.: Oxford Univ. Press, 2007. Print. 809- 848 Uphoff, Norman T, and Warren F. Ilchman. The Political Economy of Development: Theoretical and Empirical Contributions. Berkeley: University of California Press, 1973. Print. 480- 588 Wood, B D. The Politics of Economic Leadership: The Causes and Consequences of Presidential Rhetoric. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2007. Print. 09-22 Read More